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China's future will be the solar energy industry

China has some of the world's top solar products company, therefore sufficient to global solar industry about the future. New York rochester institute of technology (RIT) vice provost, national renewable energy laboratory center director RyneRaffaelle photovoltaic before said: "the stakes, huge. Solar is the world's fastest-growing markets, its total dimensions for 300 billion dollars."

At present, China's polycrystalline silicon pv panel production more than half of the global total sales. In a few short years, suntech power, yingli, trina solar and other many Chinese companies have become the industry pace makers, to promote the international competition and price movements. Ten years ago, the scale of the company, in the global market and exhibition after China's solar panels industry is becoming its own whether the victims of the success?

With China's solar industry into a turning point, experts are debating whether it will be gesep. Com forced to change its past proven mode. Experts say, obviously, with long, China's solar companies need to provide, will not only be cheap products and export capacity. Adjust the business model, the focus will be on to expand domestic market and through the innovation of the product is formed its unique advantage with the risk, although it can lead to a more sustainable than it is now the development strategy. This, of course, speaking of gesep to easy but very hard to do.

Wharton management professor, international froude management with the international research center director has MaRe · (MauroGuillen) said: "with the United States or Europe,solar heater China's energy security than more vulnerable." He added, "China is necessary to develop each resources" to meet its domestic market. To do this China not only need low cost of production, and the need for innovation, the Chinese government has formulated in the growth of the latest plan, make decisions about which areas should remember this subsidies. Has said: "if you [just] subsidies production, then you may not be what the subsidies of the economy. But if you subsidies, you may eventually get innovation than coal better energy." Coal is China's current main fuel.

Shrill alarm bells

At present, to make Chinese feel more demanding than long-term innovation, but how in the current the entire industry within the scope of the turmoil survive. One reason is: Chinese solar industry 90% of production for export, and China and the United States is in this industry trade conflicts occur. The think tank in Washington, d.c. "American progress" policy analyst MelanieHart center said: "at the moment of emotion is panic". The cause of the things is, in early 2012, is located in the city of FuLiMengTe California Solyndra company went out of business, the company will be $585 million in federal loan guarantee default blamed on the malignant competition from China. After less than two months, in the October 19, its headquarter is located in Oregon Hillsboro, America's largest solar battery makers, Germany company SolarWorldIndustriesAmerica, and other seven home unnamed U.S. company to the us department of commerce and the United States international trade commission filed for Chinese solar energy industry anti-dumping complaints. (Solyndra company has not identified as complaints party.) Subsequently, China's commerce ministry said it is investigating the U.S. government for American solar energy industry support whether violates the provisions of the world trade organization, a few days later, the United States international trade commission to make a complaint for America of the preliminary decision to the party.

Now is not sure whether a case in the United States will SolarWorld raise tariffs, if the United States really high tax to China customs, China's solar panels will basically can't access to the American market. Only some businesses will think this is a good news. At present, the United States to keep China trade surplus, to the solar energy company export equipment and other products?????? . Located in wuxi, China's suntech power (the world's largest solar battery unit manufacturers, 2010 income reached 3 billion dollars) chief business officer AndrewBeebe said: "China and United States trade war will affect the solar energy industry, affect the job [global], influence economy. It will make solar power to the traditional form of power generation losing competitiveness... most of the solar energy industry jobs are in the end user market: around the project development, construction and installation. These jobs are dependent on affordable solar panels, such ability of traditional energy has cost competitiveness." In 'affordable solar federation in the name of ", many Chinese enterprises (including suntech power) and more than 130 American firms have to oppose SolarWorld case.

Although the industry's some people may have different opinions, but investors think Chinese solar industry as the new industry into the vitality. Because of this, is located in San Francisco,solar energy in China there are investment project risk investment company CrosslinkCapital partner AlainHarrus said: "trade sanctions is a bad idea. This will make us back in the last times, will lead to the solar energy of the capacity and the rise in the price of installation decline." A company located in Boston market research company GTMResearch executive director of the ShayleKann added, in the United States, 40% of the solar power devices using Chinese panel, trade will lead to supply interruptions.

In fact, the American complaints party victory may not achieve its goal. A few years ago, the United States of Japan semiconductor manufacturers trade sanctions as failing to protect the native American semiconductor industry. A company located in New York city's U.S. investment bank Jeffries&Company senior research analyst JessePichel said, likewise, heavy tariffs can lead to China's solar company change strategy, let American rivals could not share any related interests. On the one hand, the enterprise can follow China's largest solar company (suntech, yingli green energy holding company, trina solar and LDK LDK solar) in North America and the global low cost country of a factory.

In addition, mechanical engineering professor of the university of Pennsylvania NoamLior points out, "the United States is not the only one in China. China customers can sell to Indonesia, Taiwan, South America and other countries and regions."

The survival of the fittest

Although trade dispute very worrying, but China's solar industry may also become more of a threat: namely global prices and demand decline. Pichel says: "the industry is now facing cyclical recession. Demand appeared stagnation, because prices continue to drop, so people want to wait [buy]." Pichel said that in the past two years, the drop in cost more than half, global photovoltaic cells, in 2010 the demand is growing 165% in 2009, but is expected to grow 27, is only 9%, to 4% in 2013. He said the current supply demand of more than two to three times, this new industry for it is very typical. In addition, the industry by the influence of the financial crisis, especially in Europe due to run fiscal tightening, reduced subsidies for solar energy industry, and the European market and accounted for 70% of the total amount of the global market.

Chinese companies rushing to hope in this market success. Optimal too (Shanghai) chief technical officer StephaneDufrenne pointed out: "2012 will be very difficult, a life and death a year. The weakest companies will bankrupt or be bought. The strong company will survive and stronger."

For decades, China is low cost manufacturers, and western countries is the provider of innovation, 27 challenge can change that mode? Experts say, perhaps, but probably over a period of time. Pichel said: "a good high-tech company should be 10% of their income to 15%. And to develop China's solar energy company development accounts for only about 1% of the income to 2%," in addition, the Chinese government policies and Banks tend to for the state-owned?????? Large enterprises to provide financing, and don't favor a more entrepreneurial spirit of the small and medium-sized enterprises. The center of the American progress Hart said: "small and medium enterprise often more creative, but [in China] but small and medium-sized enterprises in the course" gesep global energy conservation and environmental protection nets.

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